Market Letters › #20
Why the Indian retail saver is about to discover bonds.
06 May 2026 · 0 reads
For 20 years, Indian retail has been told: "Stocks beat everything. Stay in equity." Mostly true.
But the math is changing. Here's what most haven't noticed:
• 10-year G-sec yield: 7.04%
• Long-duration corporate bonds (AAA): 7.8-8.2%
• Inflation: 5.08% (and falling)
• Real return on bonds: ~3% (positive!)
For the first time in a decade, fixed income generates positive real returns at acceptable risk.
More: budget 2026 changes mean LTCG on bonds is now 12.5% (same as equity). Tax-equivalent yield is much higher than 6 months ago.
What this means: a balanced portfolio (60% equity, 40% bonds) now makes mathematical sense for the first time in a decade.
If you're 40+ years old with significant savings, please don't ignore this shift. Allocating 20-30% to investment-grade bonds isn't being conservative — it's being mathematically optimal.
Equity-only thinking was right for the 2003-2024 period. It may not be right for 2025-2035.