Why Indian IT services may be at a 10-year inflection point.

Three forces are colliding in Indian IT services this quarter: 1. **AI commoditization** — Companies like TCS, Infosys built businesses on commoditizing IT work. Now AI is commoditizing them. Margin pressure. 2. **Rupee tailwind** — Every 1% rupee weakness adds 60bps to margins. Currency partially offsetting cost pressure. 3. **Global slowdown** — US/Europe IT budgets are slowing. Deal sizes are smaller. Cycle longer. The net? My prediction: IT services will produce 8-10% revenue growth (down from 13% historical) but margin compression of 150-300 bps over 18 months. This means stocks like Infosys, TCS will see EPS growth lag price growth. Multiples may compress from 26x to 20x. Not a sell signal — these are still quality businesses. But a recalibration of expectations. If you're buying IT today, do it knowing the next 5 years won't look like the previous 5.